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We show empirically that regions with a more specialized production structure exhibit output °uctuations that are less correlated with those of other regions (less \symmetric" °uctuations). Combined w...
During the last 15 years econometric techniques for evaluating macroeconomic policy using dynamic stochastic models in which expectations are consistent, or rational, have been developed extensively...
This paper examines the differences between economic fluctuations in the United States and Japan during the period from 1972 through 1986. During this period the size of the fluctuations in real out...
We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations in which consumers form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information and these anticipations affect output in the short ...
In addressing the precipitous drop in trade volumes in the recent crisis, the real and financial explanations have sometimes been juxtaposed as competing explanations. However, they can be recon...
An interesting analog circuit for simulating a signal with fluctuations having a probability density function with a power tail has recently been proposed and constructed. The exponent of the power la...
The law of large numbers introduces an order of where N is the number of elements in a linear stochastic system with or without growth. Comparing observed magnitudes of macro fluctuations and numbers ...
Ping Chen, "Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory: the Principle of Large Numbers vs. Rational Expectations Arbitrage," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organ...

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